Monthly Market Note — November 2026

Macro & Rates: two central banks, one message

October confirmed that the fight against inflation is not over. On 28 October the Federal Reserve held the fed funds range at 3.75%–4.00% after September's hike, but the vote was 10–2, with two members favouring an immediate increase. Chair Warsh reiterated that returning inflation to 2% remains the priority, and markets now largely price a further move at the 9 December meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield closed above 5% on the day of the decision.

The ECB followed a similar script on 29 October: deposit rate unchanged at 2.50% after two hikes this year, with euro-area inflation still well above target and energy prices elevated. The meeting also brought an institutional surprise: Christine Lagarde announced she will step down in February 2027, adding a succession question to an already delicate policy outlook.

US labour data surprised on the upside: October payrolls rose by 165,000 against roughly 65,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.1%. A resilient labour market gives the Fed little reason to soften its tone.

Volatility & Options: the calm is thinner

Equities spent October close to their highs, but with more nervous intraday swings, led by technology. Implied volatility rose: the VIX moved from about 16 to about 19 over the month. For option sellers, higher premiums partly offset the more uncertain backdrop; for anyone holding protection, the cost of hedging has increased. In this environment, position sizing and defined-risk structures matter more than directional conviction.

Digital Assets: a difficult “Uptober”

Bitcoin closed October down about 7%, from roughly USD 83,600 to USD 77,400 — its weakest October in a decade. Tighter monetary expectations, a major exchange security incident and the tech sell-off weighed on sentiment, and spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of around USD 0.5 billion. The episode is a reminder that seasonal statistics carry little weight when the macro backdrop turns.

What we are watching in November

• US inflation (CPI mid-month, PCE on 25 November): the main input for the Fed's December decision.
• Long-term yields: whether the 10-year holds above 5% and how equities absorb it.
• Euro area: inflation data, energy prices and the ECB succession debate ahead of December.
• Volatility regime: whether the VIX stabilises below 20 or the October swings become a trend.
• Digital assets: ETF flows as the clearest signal of institutional appetite.

Our approach remains unchanged: disciplined process, strict risk control and no reliance on forecasts.

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